Assessing the impact of climate change on crop yields in Europe

Grantham Scholar Dr Monica Ortiz is now postdoc at Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad looking at the links between biodiversity and well-being. Before this she worked at UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources. Monica’s project at the Grantham Centre looked at how climate change will affect wheat production in Europe.

Social media

You can find Monica on Twitter. And you can find out what she’s working on at the moment on her website.


Tool for journalists: Global South Climate Database, for diversifying your climate coverage. Monica is included on an important list aimed at journalists who want to diversify climate coverage. The list is available online: The Global South Climate Database.

Watch: Food footprints: global food security and sustainability. Using hand made animations, Monica explains the challenges of achieving global food security. She talks about the things food needs to grow, the role of agriculture in sustainability, and what changes we could make to ensure a sustainable future.

The next generation of environmental thinkers. In her final blog before graduating in 2018, Monica tells us about the next generation of environmental thinkers – kids.

Philippines affected by more extreme tropical cyclones says Grantham Scholar. In 2016 Monica published a study that showed tropical cyclones in the Philippines are more extreme and cause greater amounts of devastation.

What I learned at the NCAS climate modelling summer school. In 2015, Monica attended the National Centre for Atmospheric Science climate modelling summer school. In this blog she reflects on the challenges of climate modelling and its implications for the fight to save our planet.

Gender, climate change and food security. Monica reflects on how a changing climate is affecting women around the world.

Sustainable intensification of agriculture by Monica Ortiz. Monica introduces sustainable intensification of agriculture and explains how it might to help feed a growing population.

Climate data and food security research by Monica Ortiz. Monica reflects on the important role that climate data plays in food security research.

How can climate modelling help food security? By Monica Ortiz. Monica reports back from a climate modelling course in Italy. She explains why climate modelling is useful and how it will add to her research in global food security.

Monica’s research at the Grantham Centre

This project aims to predict how climate change will affect wheat production in Europe.

Rising greenhouse gas emissions lead to changes in our climate. This includes more variability in temperature, rainfall, and extreme climate events like droughts, storms and floods. Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change, which threatens future food production. In Europe, wheat is one of the most important staple foods. Wheat is also a major part of agriculture in terms of planted land, resources, economics, and culture.

Instead of field experiments, climate and crop models will be used together to predict how different future scenarios in Europe will affect wheat yield. Climate models represent our most current scientific understanding of the atmosphere. Crop models simulate how plants grow in different weather and climate, with varying genetics, soil and other biological factors. Predictions of yields support policymakers and farmers in adapting to climate change. Information on future yields may also be useful to motivate research in breeding crops that are adapted to future climate, and bolster efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases, which have adverse effects on our food and planet.


Ortiz, Andrea Monica & Leon, Alaya & Torres, Justine & Guiao, Cecilia & Viña, Antonio. (2021). Implications of COVID-19 on progress in the UN Conventions on Biodiversity and Climate Change. Global Sustainability. 4. 1-33. 10.1017/sus.2021.8.

Ortiz, AMD, Baldock, D, Willan, C and Dalin, C. (2021). Towards Net Zero in UK Agriculture: A practical approach. Report for HSBC UK.

Ortiz, AMD, de Leon, AM, Torres, JNV, Guiao, CTT, and AGM La Viña. (2021). Global Sustainability Special Issue: Post COVID-19. (Invited). doi: 10.1017/sus.2021.8.

Ortiz, A. M. D., Outhwaite, C. L., Dalin, C., & Newbold, T. (2021). A review of the interactions between biodiversity, agriculture, climate change, and international trade: research and policy priorities. One Earth, 4(1), 88–101. Link.

Ortiz, A. M. D., & Torres, J. N. V. (2020). Assessing the Impacts of Agriculture and Its Trade on Philippine Biodiversity. Land, 9(11), 403. Part of Special Issue on Climate Adaptation and Biodiversity Conservation.

Ortiz, A. M.: The multiple interactions of banana production, biodiversity, trade and climate in the Philippines, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-1526.

Outhwaite, C., Ortiz, A. M., Dalin, C., Newbold, T. Modelling the interactions between global biodiversity and agricultural land-use. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, EGU2019-12702, 2019, European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019.

Ortiz, AMD. (2019) Projecting the impacts of climate change on wheat yields in the UK and Germany and assessing modeling uncertainties. PhD thesis, University of Sheffield.

Ortiz, A. M., Jones, J., Freckleton, R., Scaife, A. Characterizing bias correction uncertainty in wheat yield predictions. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, EGU2017-4758, 2017, EGU General Assembly 2017.

Villarin, J. T., Algo, J. L., Cinco, T. A., Cruz, F. T., de Guzman, R. G., Hilario, F. D., Narisma, G.T., Ortiz, A. M., Siringan, F. P., Tibig, L. V. (2016). Philippine Climate Change Assessment (PhilCCA): The Physical Science Basis. The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation Inc. and Climate Change Commission.

Cinco TA, de Guzman RG, Ortiz AMD*, Delfino RJP, Lasco RD, Hilario FH, Juanito EL, Barba R and Ares ED. (2016). Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines. International Journal of Climatology. Link. *corresponding author and lead technical author

Gotangco CK, See J, Dalupang JP, Ortiz M, Porio E, Dator-Bercilla J, Yulo-Loyzaga A, Narisma G. (2015). Quantifying Resilience to Flooding Among Households and Local Government Units Using System Dynamics: the Case of Metro Manila. J. Flood Risk Management.

Ibid. (2015). 6th International conference on Flood Management, Sao Paolo, Brazil. Sept. 2014.

Porio, E., A. Yulo-Loyzaga, M. Ortiz, and J. See. (2014). Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Metro Manila Informal Settlements. Paper presented at the ISA-RC 46 Integrative Session, Addressing Social Inequality Before, During and After Crisis, XVIII World Congress of Sociology, Yokohama, Japan, July 13-19, 2014.

Dator-Bercilla, J. and AMD Ortiz. (2013). “Framework, Approaches, Parameters and Measures for Climate Change and Tourism In the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)”. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Ortiz M. et al. “Manila Observatory analyzes LPA that affected Mindanao”. Philippine Star. 23 January 2014.

Ortiz M. et al., Manila Observatory. Technical report on Typhoon Haiyan (2013).

Ortiz M. et al.“June 17 traffic nightmare: the new normal for the rainy season?”. Philippine Star and Philippine Daily Inquirer. 6 July 2013. Link.

Ortiz M. “COMMENTARY: Pablo, climate change and banana production in the Davao Region”. Mindanews. 10 January 2013.

Ortiz AMD. “Climate Change Impacts on Banana Production In the Davao Region of the Philippines”. Masters thesis. 2012. University of Copenhagen and University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna.